Patterns in Nature and Finance. The Fibonacci Sequence and the Golden Ratio.
As a management and finance consultant I’ve always been intrigued by patterns, not only in nature but also in some situations or circumstances that face many companies and startups. Patterns are everywhere and are defined by the Cambridge Dictionary as a particular way in which something is done, is organized, or happens. (1) Mankind has analyzed patterns in mother nature projecting them in art, biology, mathematics, music, history, architecture, finance and in many other fields. Such patterns have been applied in many works and are real examples of our reality we are experiencing in this universe. Here are some examples: One of the most famous pattern in nature is the golden ratio. To explain this pattern in a mathematical way we can say that two quantities are in golden ratio if their ratio is the same as the sum to the larger of the two quantities as it is shown in the following graph: The Greeks use the letters ϕ or φ to represent the golden ratio. It is calculated as follows: ϕ = (1 + ) / 2 = 1.6180339887 If we use this formula we can get the golden spirals or a Fibonacci spiral. Fibonacci (c. 1170- 1250) also known as Leonardo of Pisa or Leonardo the Traveller from Pisa popularized the Hindu-Arabic numeral system in the Western World. He used the golden ratio in related geometry problems, though never connected it to the series of numbers named after him. (2) The Fibonacci sequence is shown as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, … By the way, Leonardo Da Vinci (1452 – 1519) who illustrated Luca Pacioli’s book, Divina proportione (1509), called the golden ratio as section aurea (golden section) and used this proportion or ratio in many of his paintings and works. The interesting thing here is that a German mathematician Simon Jacob was the one who noticed that consecutive Fibonacci numbers converge to the golden ratio. As you can notice, a given number equals the sum of the previous two consecutive numbers and therefore the golden ratio is the limit of the ratios of successive terms of the Fibonacci sequence (or any Fibonacci-like sequence), as it was discovered by Johannes Kepler (c. 1571-1630), another German mathematician. {\displaystyle \lim _{n\to \infty }{\frac {F_{n+1}}{F_{n}}}=\varphi .} Now let’s talk about the Fibonacci sequence in finance. A financial market analysis is based on data, graphs, price patterns and quotes. Fibonacci retracement is part of the technical analysis or more particularly a method to analyze and obtain support and resistance levels in prices. The name of this analysis comes after their use of the Fibonacci sequence. In other words, this financial analysis helps to verify correction price levels of a financial asset. These corrections help to identify support and resistance levels through retracements. (3) The most common and used Fibonacci cycles are 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% to identify retracements. This financial analysis is very well used by investor due to its simplicity and convenience. Here we can see a real example of the Fibonacci retracements in the financial markets. Finally, we can see that patterns, specifically the Fibonacci sequence, is used in many fields. In finance the Fibonacci retracement is used to identify support and resistance levels in prices or quotes of many financial assets. The beauty of patterns is at the eye of the viewer. Sources: (1) Definition of pattern. Cambridge Dictionary Online. URL: https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/pattern 2019 (2) Livio, Mario (2003) [2002]. The Golden Ratio: The Story of Phi, the World’s Most Astonishing Number (First trade paperback ed.). New York City: Broadway Books. ISBN 978-0-7679-0816-0. (3) Aspray, Tom (13 August 2011). “Fibonacci analysis – Master the basics”. Forbes. Retrieved 24 October 2016. Written by M.B.A. Francisco Montalvo. Para más artículos como el anterior no dudes en revisar nuestra página de medios y nuestras redes sociales. En Exitus Global estamos para apoyarte.
How did Thomas Cook pave the road to insolvency?
A lesson for entrepreneurs On September 23, 2019 Thomas Cook, one of the leading leisure-travel corporations filed for bankruptcy after a decade of financial trouble. The company was not able to secure a £200m lifeline. Thus, about 600,000 tourists were stranded around the world. It seems to be a trend, after Monarch Airlines, a British low-cost airline and tour operator, collapsed in 2017 and TUI shared a profit alert in March 2019. The industry The travel agency service industry is engaged in offering tour packages, providing online information, booking, reservation and payment services. The major market players are Expedia, TUI and Booking according to IBISWorld. However, the industry is highly fragmented as the four major market players have less than 25% of the market share. The industry reached an annualized revenue growth of 0.7% in the last five years and is expected to grow 2.7% only in 2019, resulting in a revenue of 307.2 billion USD. Until 2024, an annual growth rate of 3.6% is expected to reach a revenue of 366.4 billion USD. The revenue composition is as followed: Tours and vacation booking accounts for 45.4% in 2019 followed by cruise bookings with 22.3% and airline bookings with 14.2%. Accommodation commission accounts for almost 10 % of the revenue in 2019. The industry changed dramatically in the last years due to consumers using online channels. Hence, the market shares of online booking agencies increased strongly compared to traditional brick-and-mortar travel agencies. The global market of travel agencies consists of thousands of enterprises which are expected to drop at an annualized rate of 3.3% due to the pressure of the internet. The technology revolutionized the market providing better access to prices and travel destinations to the consumer and forced travel agents to become experts in certain types of travel and destinations. The key drivers of the market are the GDP of the BRIC nations as travel activities from those countries have risen very strong in the last years, tourist arrivals, internet usage, consumer sentiment index and income per capita. Emerging markets are coming up as South America, Asia and Eastern Europe are showing a substantial growth rate in tourism compared to western markets. The rise of Thomas Cook Thomas Cook was a leisure-tour-operator and distributor of travel package services, bundling flights, hotels, financial services like travel insurance and foreign exchange, local transfers, tours and even meals through operators via its own and third travel agency parties. Furthermore, the travel agency operated its airline (Thomas Cook Airline and Condor) and hotel chain (Casa Cook, Sentido and Sunprime Hotels). The British businessman Thomas Cook founded one of the oldest travel agencies in 1841 in Great Britain to offer a one-day rail excursion from Leicester to Loughborough. The company grew fast and after four years’ operations, he already offered his first international route from Leicester to Calais and expanded in the 1860s international with trips to Switzerland, Italy, Egypt and America. The company survived two world wars, being nationalized being part of the state-owned British Railways after the second world war and exceeded exceeding net profits of 1 million pounds the first time in 1965. It was privatized by a consortium of Midland Bank in the 1970s and sold in 1992 to a German Bank (Westdeutsche Landesbank) and LTU, a German charter airline. In 2007, Thomas Cook, as the second-largest European travel tour operator merged with its British competitor MyTravel Group plc to create a global powerhouse of tour operators. This deal resulted in Thomas Cook plc with revenues of more than 9 billion British pounds, operating in 21 countries and with more than 21 million customers worldwide. Thomas Cook´s key market is UK, Continental Europe and Northern Europe, with a strong focus on the UK and Germany where 49 % of the oversea holidaymaker booked a tour package. The revenue structure by business segment has been as followed: Between 2016 and 2018, Thomas Cook made on average 30 % of its revenue by airline and 70 % by its tour operator. In 2018, more than 50 % of the revenue came from Europe Continental followed by the UK and Northern Europe. It has to be considered that Thomas Cook adjusted its revenue to the underlying revenue which does not consider the internal revenue. Thus, official numbers may be different. The failure of Thomas Cook The business model worked for generations and the concept was considered as a quality brand with a solid reputation. The slogan: “Don´t just book it, Thomas Cook it” showed the all-inclusive aspect of the business model. The main question is: What happened to Thomas Cook, a 178-year-old established company? There are several reasons which led to the end of Thomas Cook. These are the main ones: Digitalization: Thomas Cook didn´t change its business models and slept over the digitalization. It announced its first alliance with Expedia in 2017 but was still heavily reliant on physical stores. The interest in package tours is declining as it is easier to organize your holidays on online platforms. Competition: Companies like Booking Holding and Expedia made it easier for customers to organize their holidays. Thus, the new generations didn´t contract a full holiday package. Airline operating costs: Thomas Cook entered into the airline business, acquiring the former Lufthansa subsidiary Condor, and opening its airline. Especially the airline business is quite expensive more price-competitive than the travel sector. Brexit: The never-ending Brexit process weighted heavily on the pound. Thus, many British people didn´t leave the country as it was too expensive. Furthermore, the uncertainty led to a lower demand. Weather conditions: The heatwave of the last summer led to a drop in the demand as many Europeans enjoyed their holidays at their sunny home. According to the German economic magazine Handelsblatt, the bankruptcy of the British travel agency Thomas Cook was only the iceberg of the package tours. Analyzing the past of the company, it showed that the reasons above mentioned are only a part of the failure. There is
Valuación de Unicornios: ¿Ilusión o Realidad?
En los últimos años el término “unicornio” en el mundo empresarial ha tomado gran importancia, especialmente en la industria tecnológica. El término fue acuñado por la inversionista en Venture Capital Aileen Lee durante el 2013 y hace referencia a las empresas de capital privado que tienen una valuación superior a mil millones de dólares. La plataforma CB Insights cuenta con una base de datos con los “unicornios” a octubre de 2019. De acuerdo a esta lista, actualmente existen 409 empresas con estas características a nivel global (sólo en 2019 han ingresado 100 nuevas organizaciones al listado), un número superior a las 39 que existían en 2013 cuando el término fue creado. Este crecimiento hace cuestionar la viabilidad a largo plazo de las criaturas mitológicas y las valuaciones utilizadas por los fondos de inversión para asignar estos valores. Por lo tanto, en el siguiente artículo se presenta un análisis a detalle de esta lista y las problemáticas estructurales en el modelo de negocio actual de estas entidades. La mayor concentración de “unicornios” se encuentra en los Estados Unidos con el 47.3% del total, mientras que Asia es el continente con mayor cantidad de países en la lista con 10, estos acumulan el 38% de las startups con dichas características a nivel global. Los siete países con más entidades son: Estados Unidos, China, Reino Unido, India, Indonesia, Alemania y Corea del Sur. Al analizar los diez “unicornios” con mayor valuación, seis fueron constituidos en los Estados Unidos, tres en China y uno en Singapur. Las industrias que presentan un mayor número de “unicornios” son las relacionadas con la tecnología, ya que el desarrollo de hardware y software (16%), fintech (12%) y e-commerce (12%) son las ramas que presentan una mayor concentración. Otra categoría que ha tomado relevancia en los últimos años es la inteligencia artificial. Ilustración 1.- Distribución “Unicornios” por País e Industria. Elaboración Expansion con datos de CB insight. La gran mayoría de los fondos de inversión invierten en estas empresas esperando obtener un beneficio a mediano plazo mediante un IPO (Oferta Pública Inicial) o una transacción de M&A (fusiones y adquisiciones). De acuerdo al reporte Money Tree del Tercer Trimestre de 2019 redactado por CB Insights y PwC, las salidas a partir de IPO’s han disminuido a comparación de las salidas por M&A. En el tercer trimestre de 2017, las salidas por IPO’s representan el 13.5% del total, mientras que en el tercer trimestre de 2019 esta proporción disminuyó a 11.8%. En el momento en que una empresa decide cotizar en la bolsa deja que el público inversionista cuestiona su modelo de negocios y éste genera una nueva valuación más estricta a partir de la información reportada. Esto explica porque en los últimos años la mayoría de los “unicornios” que realizaron su IPO están cotizando a un precio inferior al inicio, ya que el mercado percibe que su modelo de negocios parece no ser sostenible a largo plazo. Empresas como Uber o Snapchat que en sus reportes financieros presentan problemáticas similares como: pérdidas multimillonarias, flujos de efectivo negativos y que no plantean lograr rentabilidad a mediano plazo. Al combinar estos tres elementos generan desconfianza en los inversionistas y repercute de manera negativa en la valuación previa al IPO, lo que equivale a pérdidas para los fondos de inversión que invirtieron a un precio por acción superior en las rondas de financiamiento previas. Otro motivo por el que los inversionistas prefieren salir mediante transacciones de M&A son los problemas de liquidez. Los modelos de negocios innovadores se caracterizan por una alta necesidad de efectivo, en consecuencia, para evitar que la compañía se quede sin recursos para poder operar, prefieren venderla a otra empresa más grande. En la siguiente ilustración se presentan los “unicornios” con mayor valuación en la actualidad, es interesante analizar el presente de estas empresas ya que de los cinco principales, cuatro están rodeados por problemas financieros y administrativos. Ilustración 3.- Valuación de “Unicornios” más Valiosos a Nivel Mundial 2020. Elaboración Statista. Toutiao (Bytedance) es una empresa creada en China dedicada al desarrollo de plataformas digitales (redes sociales) con sofisticados sistemas de inteligencia artificial. La empresa logró una valuación de 75 mil millones de dólares a finales de 2018, cuando obtuvo recursos por 3 mil millones de dólares en una ronda de inversión liderada por SoftBank. Según personas cercanas a Bytedance, el año pasado reportó ingresos entre 3 y 5 mil millones de dólares, sin embargo no ha logrado generar utilidad neta en los últimos años. Además, la mayoría de su ingreso proviene de publicidad, por lo tanto los inversionistas se cuestionan la capacidad de la empresa para mantener ingresos estables a largo plazo (problema similar sufrió Facebook durante sus primeros años). Otra cuestión importante es la desaceleración económica que sufre China, lo que afectaría de manera directa los ingresos de la empresa. Por último, la entidad cuenta con poca participación internacional, por este motivo ha invertido una gran cantidad de recursos en la expansión de plataformas como TikTok (red social enfocada en videos de corta duración), aunque dichas plataformas aún no logran generar ingresos debido a que se encuentra en su fase inicial de operación. La segunda startup más valiosa es Didi Chuxing, empresa dedicada a la movilidad y principal competidor de Uber a nivel mundial. Uber realizó su IPO durante la primera mitad de 2019, obteniendo resultados adversos y reduciendo la valuación alcanzada en su última ronda de inversión previa al IPO. Este antecedente afecta directamente a Didi, ya que sufre las mismas problemáticas estructurales que su principal competidor. Personas cercanas a Didi reportan que durante 2018 sufrió pérdidas por 1.8 mil millones de dólares, superiores a las reportadas por Uber en el mismo periodo (aproximadamente mil millones de dólares). El problema principal es que la empresa busca una estrategia de expansión agresiva en mercados emergentes, donde Uber es líder, por lo que competirá mediante precio, de manera que reducirá aún más los márgenes de ganancia de la empresa. Al
The restaurant chain in crisis: Turmoil at Vapiano
The business model of the Italian lifestyle brand Vapiano is simple: Innovative “Fresh Casual Dining” (FCD) located between a quick-service-restaurant like McDonalds and classical seated dining restaurants. Once the guest enters the restaurant, he receives a card that he shows when he is ordering pizza, pasta, or salads on the counter. The food is made from scratch daily with fresh ingredients and cooked in a few minutes in front of the guest. The payment is done by leaving the restaurant with the amount on the card. The price is also reasonable between 8 and 15 euros. The German restaurant chain founded in 2002 in Hamburg with headquarters in Colonia was a success story in the last 10 years: Restaurant base increased thirteenfold between 2006 and 2019, from 17 to 235 restaurants in thirty-three countries. Over 30% of the restaurants are based in Germany, followed by around 25% in the rest of Europe and around 45% inthe rest of the world. The restaurants are opened as corporate/joint ventures or franchises By 2020, the company aims to have 330 restaurants worldwide carrying their logo In 2017, the restaurant was voted as the favorite restaurant for vegetarians and vegans by a German NGO, representing their interest 66% brand awareness in Germany 92% of the guests in Germany and Austria would recommend Vapiano In the top three of FCD market share in Western European countries like Sweden (~13%), Germany and Austria (~13%), France (~6%), England and Netherlands (~1%) Constant growth in net sales (CAGR: 28%) between 2014 and 2017, increasing from 152 million to 249 million Euros adjusted for acquisitions which included only corporate and joint venture restaurants and almost 500 million in 2017 with franchise included Successful IPO at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2017, raising about 184 million euros resulting in a valuation of about 553 million euros The restaurant chain had a lot of success until 2015, but later on, wrong decisions and bad luck turned the game. There has been news about hygiene deficiencies in individual restaurants and a low work performance of employees, which are a disaster of a restaurant chain like Vapiano. The new CEO Jochen Halfmann with a jewelry and perfumery industry background, tackled these issues, but they had made other strategic mistakes like too long preparation time of new dishes. Fast preparation time is a promise of Vapiano which couldn’t keep. After the successful IPO in 2017, Vapiano realized an aggressive expansion by opening new restaurants at a fast rate (including Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and China) to reach 330 locations by 2020. This aggressive strategy led to mistakes like location selection and a lot of locations made a lower revenue than internally expected. The CEO Jochen Halfmann resigned on November 30, 2018, and Cornelius Everke (former Starbucks CEO) took over. As a consequence of the strategic decisions made in 2018 sales increased because of new openings which also provoked a loss of 101 million euros in the fiscal year. (after losses of 31 million euros in 2017). It has reduced the equity from 131 million at the beginning of 2018 to 46 million euros even considering a capital increase of 20 million euros at the end of the year. The equity ratio fell to 13.3% compared to 2017, with 37.4%. The liabilities increased very strong because of non-compliance with financial covenants. Thus, a revolving credit facility had to be reclassified. The events of 2018 also impacted the cash flow of operating activities which was -915.000 euros in comparison with 11 million euros in the previous year. This is mainly because of negative business development and newly opened restaurants. Normally public companies have 3 months to publish their financial statements and it is not unusual that companies take more time, but Vapiano lasted a lot of time to present the results of the first six months in 2019. It is not new that the company is in a crisis due to the expansion strategy and decreasing guest loyalty. In 2018, the publication of the financial statements was postponed three times as a loan of 30 million euros was needed. The negative trend of 2017 and 2018 keeps up in 2019 as the financial results of the first six months show. The consolidated revenue increased to 196.6 million euros, mainly due to new openings and acquisitions. Considering the same restaurants (like-for-like sales) of 2018, the revenue decreased by 3.2%. Because of the amendment of IFRS 16 leases, the liabilities of Vapiano increased sharply as they don’t own any restaurant. The liabilities increased to 470 million euros (199 million euros without IFRS 16) which is higher than the yearly consolidated revenue. The equity ratio decreased to 2% (5% without IFRS 16) including the effects of IFRS 16 due to the negative results (-34 million euros). Even by not considering the impact of the IFRS 16 on the financial position, the future looks still gloomy. The leverage (Net debt/EBITDA) is going to be between 8 and 10 times which is quite high for a company and not acceptable by financial institutions. This ratio should be below 3.5 times as it was at the end of 2017 (3.05x). The new CEO Cornelius Everke resigned surprisingly on August 30th, 2019, 9 months after taking over and deepening the crisis in the restaurant chain. After him CEO Vanessa Hall wants to increase guest loyalty and lead the restaurant to a positive free cash flow in 2020 and break-even by 2021. The case study of Vapiano shows the consequences of an aggressive expansion strategy of a young company. The learnings are that it is not possible to have both a fast expansion and a good service quality. Once there are strategic mistakes, the financial consequences will be big. A fast expansion strategy leads to mistakes in planning, such as location selection and contracting qualified employees. My recommendations for Vapiano and any company with a fast growth rate are: Reducing growth rate to complete any analysis without mistakes Consider any factor in the expansion strategy plan such as employees, complexity of the product, new
Value Creation and ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)
Companies create value when they perform actions that increase the worth of goods and services. There are two ways to measure value creation; the first one is growth and the second one is through ROIC (return on invested capital). Growth is easy to explain and easy to see inside the companies. When there is more demand for products and services therefore production increases, employers hire more people and more CAPEX (investment in equipment, machinery and working capital) is needed . Then return on invested capital (ROIC) another measure for value creation, represents what will be the yield that a company obtains after investing in capital. This can be obtained with the following formula: Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) / Total Invested Capital So at the end, this ratio shows a yield or return that a company gets after investing money in equipment, machinery and or working capital. Also, another way to understand growth is by multiplying ROIC times investment rate. Growth = ROIC * Investment rate According to some ex-McKinseys consultants, the more growth and capital deployment at attractive rates of return, the more value they create. The combination of growth and return on invested capital (ROIC), at higher rates compared to its cost of capital (WACC), is what drives and creates real value for a company. Besides some studies made by a prestigious consulting firm demonstrate that investments in research and development (R&D) correlate with positive long-term returns to shareholders and therefore creating value to the company. Another concept to be addressed is cost of capital. In this section we will not explain WACC or cost of capital in more detail but it is important to consider it in order to determine the value of a company: Value = Free Cash Flow year 1 / (WACC or cost of capital – growth rate) Free cash flow is the cash flow generated by the business, or “money left in the pocket”. In the other hand, growth rate is the rate at which the company’s NOPAT, Net Income and cash flow grow each year. Another pattern is that many companies, especially in Mexico, only focus on the short-term. Decision makers should make decisions for the long-term, even if that means making some sacrifices. When businesses only focus in the short term that is a formula for disaster. The result throughout history is a financial crisis. Annualized TRS. 1996-2005. % Growth Change in ROIC Below Average Decreased Below Average Increased Above Average Decreased Above Average Increased Source: Bin Jiang and Tim Koller, “How to Choose between Growth and ROIC”. McKinsey on Finance, no. 25 (Autumn 2007) 19-22. Para más artículos como el anterior no dudes en revisar nuestra página de medios y nuestras redes sociales. En Exitus Global estamos para apoyarte.
La Industria de Fabricación de Productos de Azúcar y Confitería en México
La industria manufacturera de productos de azúcar y confitería en México comprende la producción de azúcares, chocolates, dulces, chicles y otros productos de confitería. El 40% de los ingresos para esta industria son generados por el chocolate y los dulces. Este sector aporta a industrias como la panadería, producción de galletas, manufactura de tortillas y harinas premezcladas; y la manufactura de comida en general. Una determinante crucial para el desempeño de esta industria es el comercio, cada año las exportaciones tan solo a Estados unidos representan aproximadamente un 25% de los ingresos; tan solo en 2019 esta cifra representó el 26.9% de los ingresos para la industria. A nivel global las exportaciones representan aproximadamente un 32.1%, mientras que las importaciones solo generan un 12% de los ingresos. Debido a la accesibilidad de las exportaciones en el extranjero su valor total ha aumentado un 2.1% anualizado llegando a los $ 41.6 mil millones de MXN durante el período de 2014 a 2019; esto demuestra la viabilidad de crecimiento que presenta la industria. Se espera que el comercio permanezca como una determinante clave de los ingresos de la industria en los próximos cinco años, representando hasta un 35.2% de los ingresos totales de la industria para 2024. Se pronostica que los ingresos de la industria presenten un crecimiento a una tasa anualizada de 0.9% a MXN $ 135.9 mil millones durante los cinco años para 2024. Factores que impactan la industria: Consumo de Bebidas Azucaradas Precio del Azúcar Gasto de los Consumidores Población Mundial Segmentación de los productos de la industria Dentro de la categoría de dulces se encuentran caramelos, chicles y gomas de dulce; por otro lado, en la categoría de azucares se encuentran productos como caña de azúcar. Los competidores más grandes de México para la industria son Beta San Miguel SA de CV, Zucarmex SA de CV, Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV y Mondelez International Inc.; dichos competidores no representan más del 35% de la industria por los que las barreras de entrada y la competencia aún no se encuentran centralizadas haciendo accesible la entrada de nuevos competidores al mercado. Elaborado por Karen Milla Fuentes: IBISWorld. (2019). IBISWorld Industry Report 3113MX Sugar & Confectionery Product Manufacturing in Mexico. Colombia University: IBISWorld Inc. Para más artículos como el anterior no dudes en revisar nuestra página de medios y nuestras redes sociales. En Exitus Global estamos para apoyarte.
El Mercado Global de Divisas, la Importancia de México
El mercado de divisas es uno de los factores principales que han impulsado la globalización y el desarrollo del comercio internacional. Por ello es fundamental contar con estadísticas relacionadas con las transacciones entre todas las divisas a nivel mundial. El Banco de Pagos Internacional (BIS por sus siglas en inglés) elabora cada tres años el documento “Triennial Central Bank Survey 2019” entre sus miembros para conformar la fuente de información global más confiable sobre el tamaño, y estructura del mercado de divisas y derivados no organizado (OTC por sus siglas en inglés). En esta encuesta participan bancos centrales de 53 países y dan información sobre 24 divisas. Los datos más importantes recolectados este año son los siguientes: ● Las transacciones de divisas alcanzaron el equivalente a $6.6 billones de dólares al día en 2019, esto representa un incremento al compararlo con los $5.1 billones de 2016 ● Los dólares americanos (USD) se mantienen como la divisa dominante, ya que está involucrada en el 88% de todas las transacciones. El euro (EUR) es la segunda divisa más importante ya que participa en el 32% de todas las transacciones. Por otro lado, el yen japonés (JPY) participa en el 17% de las transacciones, aunque sufrió un retroceso de más del 5% al compararlo con la última encuesta de 2016 ● Las divisas de los países emergentes (EME) participaron en el 25% de todas las operaciones globales, esto representa un avance en comparación con las encuestas anteriores. El renminbi (RMB) fue la divisa que logró un crecimiento superior al resto de divisas de países emergentes, lo que se refleja en el ranking. En la siguiente tabla se presentan las divisas más importantes de acuerdo a la encuesta: Tabla 1. Divisas con Mayor Participación 2019 y 2016. Datos de Triennial Central Bank Survey de BIS El peso mexicano (MXN) ocupa el 15vo lugar entre las divisas con mayor participación de mercado, ya que está involucrada en el 1.7% de todas las transacciones. En 2016 la moneda mexicana ocupaba el octavo lugar a nivel mundial, lo que representa un retroceso al compararlo con la información más reciente. Sin embargo; se mantiene como la segunda divisa de países emergentes más cotizada a nivel mundial. Los inversionistas han reducido su exposición al riesgo debido a circunstancias geopolíticas y económicas, esto se refleja en el ranking, ya que divisas de países de “primer mundo” como las coronas noruegas (NOK) y el dólar de Nueva Zelanda (NZD) subieron su posición en el ranking, reduciendo la participación de divisas como el peso mexicano. Otro dato interesante que arrojó la encuesta es la composición de los instrumentos cuyo subyacente es el peso mexicano, ya que diariamente ocurren transacciones por un total promedio de 114 mil millones de dólares americanos. En la siguiente tabla se presentan los resultados obtenidos por la encuesta. Tabla 2. Distribución por Instrumento realizadas con MXN en 2019. Datos de Triennial Central Bank Survey de BIS Las transacciones más importantes son las de tipo de cambio spot con el 42% de todas las operaciones diarias. Los swaps de tipo de cambio ocupan el segundo sitio con el 39%, esto pauta que el peso mexicano sea una divisa utilizadas por inversionistas especulativos ya que el mercado de derivados permite establecer estrategias de arbitraje con mayor facilidad. Una muestra de este comportamiento son los movimientos en el tipo de cambio mexicano que varían muchos puntos porcentuales en un solo día. Un ejemplo muy claro que ha ocurrido en los últimos años son los “tweets” o comentarios públicos del presidente de los Estados Unidos que deprecian de manera significativa el tipo de cambio. Elaborado por Javier Gómez Referencias Bank for International Settlements. (2019). TriennialCentral Bank Survey. Septiembre 2019, de Monetary and Economic Departmen Sitio web: https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf Para más artículos como el anterior no dudes en revisar nuestra página de medios y nuestras redes sociales. En Exitus Global estamos para apoyarte.
El pulmón del mundo y su impacto en la economía
La Amazonía es una vasta región en el centro de América del Sur que comprende la selva tropical de la cuenca del río Amazonas, es un territorio de cerca de 7,8 millones de kilómetros cuadrados y está compartida por Bolivia, Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana Francesa, Perú, Surinam y Venezuela. El 11 de noviembre de 2011 la selva amazónica fue declarada una de las siete maravillas naturales del mundo, dentro de la cual se encuentran el 9.5% de todas las especies animales del planeta, 40,000 mil especies de plantes dentro de las cuales más de 10,000 tienen un uso medicinal o cosmético, entre otras especies que se verán con grandes afectaciones por los recientes incendios. A pesar de contar con la OTCA (Organización del Tratado de Cooperación Amazónica) y el Tratado de Cooperación Amazónica (TCA), falta una decisión mancomunada de los países llamados amazónicos, orientada a hacer un uso racional de los recursos naturales y del agua, y la preservación del medio ambiente. Endureciendo sus medidas políticas contra la deforestación y la quema controlada para convertir a esas tierras en campos de cultivo. Gráfico obtenido de Statista con datos del INPE: https://es.statista.com/grafico/19098/numero-de-incendios-forestales-en-brasil/ En el periodo del 1 de enero al 25 de agosto de 2019 se detectaron 80.626 focos de fuego activos en la región centro de Latinoamérica afectando en más del 50% a la región amazónica, esto representa una afectación de más de 68 zonas protegidas del Amazonas, los incendios tienen una tasa de crecimiento con respecto al mismo periodo del 2018 de más del 80%. Dentro de las principales actividades económicas dentro de la región se encuentran la minería, ganadería y agricultura, exportación y producción. De acuerdo con algunos especialistas la deforestación y la minería son las causantes del incremento en los recientes incendios. Pero ¿cuál es el verdadero impacto de estos incendios?, las principales regiones afectadas son la amazonia de Brasil, Bolivia Paraguay y Perú. En cuestiones económicas se verían afectados los países con la generación de empleos, exportación y producción alimenticia ya que tan solo para Brasil la economía del estado de las amazonas representa un aproximado de $ 26 501 millones de dólares y para Perú $ 7 000 millones de dólares. Una de las fuentes principales de ingreso es la exportación, principalmente con estos productos: el café, el caucho, la madera, la yuca, el plátano, el maíz y frutas típicas de la región como, el copoazú, la carambola, arazá, asaí entre otras. Si lo analizamos a nivel global el Amazonas nos aporta entre el 17% y el 21% del agua dulce al planeta, es uno de los ecosistemas más diversos en flora y fauna, y absorbe 1,000 millones de toneladas de dióxido de carbono y produce entre 5% y 15% del oxígeno del planeta. Por lo que la pérdida del Amazonas no solo impactaría en un incremento gigantesco en la cantidad de gases de efecto invernadero haciendo imposible la lucha contra el cambio climático, sino también pone en peligro a millones de especies de animales, plantas y de las comunidades indígenas que habitan este lugar. Pérdidas que sin duda tendrían consecuencias severas para el futuro de la raza humana.
Smart Contracts – The next Revolution?
The Blockchain technology is still quite hard to understand for people. Within the blockchain hype, smart contracts are seen as the next step in the evolution and as a disruption in several industries. One interesting fact is that smart contracts were already defined 14 years before Bitcoin by Nick Szcabo, a computer scientist and cryptographer. He published an essay “Smart Contracts: Building Blocks for Digital Free Markets” in 1996. Nick Szcabo defined Smart Contracts as: Nick Szcabo wrote later that the main idea of smart contracts is that contractual clauses (for example bonding, delineation of property rights) can be embedded in hardware and software in order to make a breach really expensive for the contract breacher. Furthermore, through an immutable distributed ledger which facilitates peer-to-peer payments and tracks physical objects without a third party reduces mistrust, makes processes more efficient and generates benefits such as paper free, accuracy and transparency. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency based on a decentralized application using smart contracts which inspired a new economy, also called “token economy”. The cryptocurrency Ethereum, as decentralized application through smart contracts inspired a new economy, which is also called the “token economy”. Initially, smart contracts were built upon the Ethereum protocol in order to operate by individually predefined rules (price and quantity) without a third party. New applications known online as “Know Your Customer” can be defined as digital identification processes that started a discussion about how these technologies can be used to tackle global challenges such as climate change. Smart contracts aren´t really “smart” in the understanding of intelligence, neither it is a “contract” in the legal understanding. It is a container (standard unit of software that packages up code) of an open source code running on nodes within a decentralized blockchain. The code contains a set of rules under which parties agree to interact with each other. Some key features of smart contracts are: Autonomy, Decentralization Auto suffiency The applications for smart contracts can be simple or complex. Nowadays, smart contracts are used in different fields such as: Insurance Healthcare Commodity Future Contracts Supply Chain Management Financial Service Industry Digital Identity Protecting Copyright Content Mortgages Ethereum Decentralized Autonomous Organizations Even if many people don´t understand this technology and consider that is far away to be accepted on a legal basis, it has to be noted that a number of American states like Arizona and Tennessee defined smart contracts on April 2018, by law. These kind of technologies will change markets; it is not a question of how but when it´s going to happen.
Artificial Intelligence in Financial Transactions
Believe it or not we all have made financial transactions in our lives and if you do not know what I’m talking about let me explain this concept before we go over artificial intelligence. A financial transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller to exchange an asset for payment. In mankind history, the first non-financial transactions have taken place since the very beginning. First, these transactions involved pure barter of goods, for example. Then cash or money was created to exchange goods, information or services. The first financial asset was created. Financial assets are and will be mainly cash, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, bank deposits and in the near future, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, once they get accepted by all central banks. Another way to understand financial transactions is by the change in the financial status of the buyer or seller. Buyers and sellers can be people or companies. Financial transactions might involve one or more financial asset to exchange for goods or for other financial assets. Some examples of financial transactions are purchases, loans, mortgages, bank account, credit or debit cards. Exitus Capital grants credits and loans for small companies, for example – some propaganda here -. Now let’s talk about artificial intelligence. You probably have seen some science fiction movies like AI by Steven Spielberg or Ex Machina by Alex Garland. But what does artificial intelligence imply? According to Professor Jane Binner who works at the Department of Finance at Birmingham Business School, artificial intelligence is a consortium of data-driven methodologies which includes artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic, probabilistic belief networks and machine learning as its components. The impact of these methodologies can be seen in many areas such as the economic and financial fields. The future is now and we can witness that many financial transactions are controlled by robots or algorithms already. In the following graphs it is shown the increase of algorithmic activity in foreign exchange markets, for instance, and the electronification of these transactions. It seems that AI applications in finance services and in the economy in general are now a reality. Source: “Monitoring of fast-paced electronic markets”. Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau (Bank of France) and Rohan Churm (Bank of England). September 2008, page 6. (revamped) Sources: -“Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Finance and Economics” (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 19), Binner, J., Kendall, G. and Chen, S. (Ed, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.), Bingley, pp. IX-XIII. 2004. – “La criminalité financière en images”. Jean de Maillard, Un monde sans loi :, 1999, Éditions Stock, ISBN 2-234-04827-3, page 28. -“Monitoring of fast-paced electronic markets”. Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau (Bank of France) and Rohan Churm (Bank of England). September 2008, page 6.
